Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
